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杨益:新经济时代全球化的五个趋势(中英双语版)

2018年02月28日 发布人:heandsheever
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新经济时代全球化的五个趋势

新经济是20世纪80年代以来随着新技术和新产业、尤其是电子信息产业的飞速发展而出现的新的经济形态。其区别于传统工业经济的最大特征是知识和信息替代资本成为最重要的生产要素,其核心是创新创业。创新成为经济发展的内在要求,而企业的爆发式成长则是新经济的独特现象。

虽然其发源地在美国,新经济自诞生之初就体现了高度全球化的特性:一方面,它继承了制造业全球化所奠定的全球链接基础;另一方面,它还凭借新技术所带来的信息变革极大地加快了全球化进程。因此,新经济与全球化是互为促进的。全球化由于新经济的出现而表现出了新的趋势与特征,可以总结为以下五个方面。

1.科技园区、众创空间成为全球化新的枢纽

广义的全球化泛指社会各个领域在世界范围内的关联性的不断增长。其概念最初兴起于货物与资本的越境流动,也包括国际性经济管理组织与经济实体的出现,主要反应的是制造业的全球化。在新经济时期,除了货物与资本以外,人才、技术、信息等以知识为特征的创新要素越来越成为跨境流动的主要内容,使传统的制造业全球化转变为创新全球化,世界各地的联系也越来越紧密。

物质和信息的流动必然形成若干节点和枢纽。制造业全球化时期,这样的枢纽主要是港口城市和工业园区;而新经济下全球化的主要枢纽则是科技园区和众创空间。以中关村为例,创新要素从国外来到中关村,并以此为中转站向国内其它地区辐射,反之亦然,使中关村成为要素全球流动的关键枢纽。世界各地的科技园区都在不同层次上扮演着不同规模的节点和枢纽的角色。众创空间作为科技园区的核心功能机构和创新要素最为密集的场所,更是新经济下全球化节点和枢纽的重要承载。

图 从制造业全球化到创新全球化

2. 新经济的时代精神通过全球化引发广泛共鸣

新经济对人们精神上的冲击和激励远超过传统工业经济。随着科技园区、众创空间、尤其是以创业咖啡为代表的新型创业孵化机构在全球各地不断涌现,在促进新经济繁荣的同时,也将鼓励创新创业的新经济时代精神传播到世界的每个角落,这种精神与新潮生活方式联系紧密,成为时尚、新颖和进步的代名词。苹果、谷歌、阿里巴巴等新经济的代表性企业也将这种时代精神内化,形成了崇尚创新、鼓励变革、引领时代的独特企业文化,并通过企业自身的业务扩张和示范引领效应向全世界辐射传播。

与此同时,新经济的时代精神还日益向社会文化生活中渗透。由于创新和创意活动的可类比性,创业者和艺术家之间的距离被大大缩短,而创新创业的时尚性也使得新经济与文化艺术具有相当高的契合度。例如,美国的西南偏南活动就是一个囊括了音乐节、电影节和创业节等多种内涵的大型现代文化盛典,不仅是前沿艺术家聚集的节日,也是新兴科技企业抢占潮流先机的盛事。而全世界众多创业孵化机构也都纷纷举办时尚派对等带有文化艺术性质的活动,不仅北美、欧洲、东亚等高度世俗化的区域如此,东南亚、南亚、甚至中东等宗教性质较强的区域无不亦然。可见,推崇创新创业的新经济时代精神已在全球范围内引发广泛共鸣。

图 美国奥斯汀“西南偏南”活动融合了音乐、电影和科技创新

3.发展中国家在全球化中的后发优势更加明显纽

新经济以知识为基础的本质决定了其能够通过快速学习得到发展,而其爆发式成长的特性为发展中国家实现快速追赶提供了更多可能。作为一种新的经济形式,新经济虽然起源于美国,但在创新要素高速流动的全球化进程中,后发国家与先进国家之间的差距不再是难以逾越的鸿沟。中国新经济的蓬勃发展甚至后来居上充分说明了这一点。不仅是中国,在南非、巴西、泰国、印度等其它发展中国家,甚至在伊朗这种与美国和西方国家关系并不融洽的国家,都能看到新经济方兴未艾的趋势。

人民的创造力是发展中国家发挥后发优势的最大资本。新经济的发展不依赖自然资源,对工业基础也没有过多要求,其根本的力量源泉是人民的创造力。许多发展中国家具有丰富的人才资源,发展新经济可谓动力充沛。不同国家、不同文化环境中的创新必然比单一化、同质化环境下的创新催生出更为丰富和多样化的新产品、新业态。以共享单车为例,不但将中国的自行车文化赋予了新的含义,还走出国门,向美国、英国、德国、奥地利等发达国家带去了绿色出行新理念。

图 泰国创业大会2017以独角兽作为吉祥物

4. 网络主权的兴起加快全球化向多元化方向发展

20世纪90年代以来,随着冷战的结束和西方自由民主意识形态的扩散,将全球化视为以西方为中心的同化进程的观点一度甚嚣尘上。然而,随之而来的两次全球性金融危机等一系列影响深远的国际政治、经济事件对西方中心主义观点构成了极大挑战。相反,平等、包容、多元等特性越来越多地体现在全球化进程中。这些特性在新经济下全球化中体现得尤为明显,而其中一个重要的表现就是网络主权的兴起。

美国斯诺登事件之后,国家主权在计算机网络的虚拟空间中的存在成为了不可回避的事实。网络世界中的国家主权使得新经济下全球化并没有展现出无政府的状态和世界范围内的同质化趋势。正是由于虚拟“国界”和虚拟“国土”的存在,才使得跨国创业的必要性得到突出,国际创新创业合作也在不断增长的人才、资金的跨境流动中产生了丰富多彩的成果,推动新经济下全球化不断向多元化方向发展。

国共享单车正在快速走向全球

5. 以新经济视角来看,全球化的重心正重回亚洲,而中国正日趋发挥重要推动作用

纵观全球史,如果将不同地区的经济活动用点和线连接起来,并考虑到各地区的体量,那么这张网络的重心随着时间的推移发生了几次大的变化。在大部分时间里,这个重心都在亚洲,确切的说是在两河流域及其周边,无论是亚历山大帝国、罗马帝国、波斯帝国还是蒙古帝国,其富饶的核心都在今天所谓的中东地区。文艺复兴和工业革命,以及随之而来的资本主义商品经济,使这个重心逐渐转移到了曾经的蛮荒之地欧洲、尤其是西欧。而与此同时,新大陆地发现和后来美国的崛起使北美大陆在全球经济活动中的分量迅速增大,并在二次大战后顺理成章地占据了新的重心。

中国在漫长的历史中一直保持着举足轻重的地位,虽不足以成为全球化的焦点,却也是重要的一极。在近几百年里,资本主义的兴起曾使中国传统农业经济在全球经济中的分量大幅下滑。不过随着中国的再度崛起和对全球化的积极参与和推动,这种态势必将被逆转,使全人类经济活动的重心重回亚洲。

当前,中国已经显现出这种势头。中国同大量发展中国家具有紧密的合作关系。基于市场和创新能力的考虑,发达国家、特别是创新强国愿意同中国开展创新合作,而中国在此过程中积累的发展成果和发展经验又对广大发展中国家具有极大的借鉴意义。因此,中国已成为链接发达国家和发展中国家的创新枢纽。“一带一路”沿线60余个国家总人口达44亿,约占世界总人口的63%,总经济规模达21万亿美元,约占世界经济规模的30%,再加上中国自身的经济体量,已是全球经济的半壁江山。作为“一带一路”的倡导者和全球创新枢纽,中国对全球化的积极贡献正越来越突出。

图 2016年G20杭州峰会,”创新增长方式''是中国推动的峰会核心议题,也是G20首次提出创新议题

综上来看,新经济的兴起为全球化带来了巨大的变化,传统的国际经济秩序受到了新一轮的挑战。以西方为中心、单极化的“中心-外围”体系正趋于崩塌,取而代之的将是一个更为平等、包容和多元的多极化格局。全球化经过漫长的不对称发展,将在新经济时代首次迎来全球范围内的一次相对平衡。这是发展中国家的机遇,而对中国来说更是以积极的姿态参与和推动全球化的重要契机。中国的科技园区、众创空间、高新技术企业以及相应的发展经验模式都将以更大的步伐走向世界,丰富全球化的内涵。

英文版

Five New Trends of Globalization in the Era of New Economy

The New Economy refers to a new pattern ofeconomy that has accompanied the emergence of new technologies and newindustries since the 1980s, notably the electronics and information industry.The most significant feature that distinguishes the New Economy fromtraditional industrial economy is the unprecedented predominance of knowledgeand information as factors of production, with innovation and entrepreneurshipat the core. Innovation becomes an inherent requirement of economicdevelopment, with corporate explosive growth as a unique phenomenon of the NewEconomy.

Though originated in the US,the New Economy has been demonstrating a highly globalizing nature since itsbirth. It has inherited the basis of global linkages from the globalization ofmanufacturing, while on the other hand it accelerates the pace of globalizationthrough the information revolution it brings with. Hence the New Economy andglobalization are mutually supportive. Due to the advent of the New Economy,Globalization has caught on new trends and features that can be summarized intofive dimensions as follows.

I. Science and Technology Parksand Business Incubators Become New Hubs of Globalization

In a generalized manner,globalization refers to the increasing interconnectedness and interrelatednessof all aspects of society on a global scale. The notion of globalization arosewith the trans-border flow of goods and capital, and the emergence ofinternational economic entities and institutions, thus mainly concerning theglobalization of manufacturing. In the era of New Economy, innovation elementssuch as talents, technologies and information in addition to goods and capitaltend to become the mainstream of trans-border flows, transforming thetraditional globalization of manufacturing into the globalization ofinnovation, and bringing different parts of the world even tighter together.

The flow of matter andinformation inevitably leads to the formation of nodes and hubs. In theglobalization of manufacturing, such nodes and hubs are primarily port citiesand industrial parks, whilst in the globalization of the New Economy these arescience technology parks and incubators. Taking China’s Zhongguancun sciencepark (Z-park) as an example, innovation elements from abroad gather in Z-parkand transfer on to other parts of the country, and vice versa, hence makingZ-park a critical hub of the global flow of elements. Science technology parksin every corner of the world play such a role on different level and scale. Asthe core functioning institution of science technology parks with the largestdensity of innovation elements, incubators are even more important acting asnodes and hubs of the globalization of the New Economy.

II. The Time Spirit of the NewEconomy Resonates through Globalization on a Vast Scale

The spiritual impact andincentive the New Economy brings about is much more than that of traditionalindustrial economy. Science and technology parks, incubators, and notably newforms of business incubation such as start-up cafés keep springing up in everycorner of the globe, fueling prosperity of the New Economy while spreading thetime spirit, namely advocating innovation and entrepreneurship, to every cornerof the world. Closely linked with trending lifestyle, this time spirit becomesa synonym of fashion, novelty and progressiveness. Leading companies of the NewEconomy like Apple, Google, and Alibaba have internalized this spirit, creatinga common corporate culture that advocates innovation, encourages change andleads the times, while radiating such culture to all over the world throughtheir business expansion and their role as models.

Meanwhile, the time spirit ofthe New Economy tends to permeate the social and cultural life. Because of thecomparability of innovation and creativity, the gap between entrepreneurs andartists are largely closed, while the novelty of innovation andentrepreneurship makes the New Economy highly compatible with art and culture.An example is the event South By Southwest in the US, which is a grand carnivalof modern culture bringing together music, movie, and startups, and not only afestival for frontier artists, but also a grand occasion for technologycompanies to seize the trending opportunity. Besides, incubator organizationsaround the world also tend to hold events related to art and culture, and notonly in such highly secular areas as North America, Europe and East Asia, butalso in more religious regions like Southeast Asia, South Asia and the MiddleEast. In this perspective, the time spirit of the New Economy has caused a ratherglobal resonance.

III. The Late-comer Advantage ofDeveloping Countries is More Obvious in Globalization

The foundation of the NewEconomy on knowledge makes it achievable through fast learning, while itsfeature of explosive growth makes it more possible for developing countries tocatch up. Though a new form of economy originated in the US, the New Economydoes not suggest an insurmountable divide between developed and developingcountries, which can be supported by China's recent success. In otherdeveloping countries like South Africa, Brazil, Thailand, India, and even Iranwho is by no means on friendly terms with the US and other western countries,the New Economy is in ascendant as elsewhere.

The creativity of the peoplehas been the most valuable asset of developing countries to exploit theirlate-comer advantage. The New Economy relies on neither natural resources norindustrial foundation, with its ultimate driving force embedded in thecreativity of the people. Not a few developing countries have a rich talentpool that generates strong power for development. More diverse new products andnew industries could emerge from innovations from heterogeneous countries andcultures than from a single and homogeneous environment. Taking bike-sharing asan example, it endows China’s bicycle culture with new dynamics while alsobinging a new concept of green transit to developed countries like the US, theUK, Germany and Austria.

IV. The Rise of Cyber SovereigntyDrives Globalization towards Diversification

In the 1990s, the end of ColdWar and the subsequent prevalence of the liberal democratic ideology gave riseto a trend of thought that takes globalization as a process of assimilationfollowing a western example. However, two waves of global financial crisis andother far-reaching economic and political incidents posed significantchallenges to western-centric viewpoints. By contrast, values like equality,inclusiveness and diversity have been more and more represented inglobalization. Especially prominent are these features in the globalization ofthe New Economy, with the rise of cyber sovereignty as a significantdevelopment.

The Snowden revelations madestate sovereignty in the cyber space an unavoidable fact. It is cybersovereignty that has kept the globalization of the New Economy distinct fromglobal homogenization and anarchic disorder. And it is the “sovereignty” and“territory” in the cyber space that necessitated trans-nationalentrepreneurship, notably in the internet industry. Growing trans-border flowsof talents and capital result in rich and colorful creations that in turn drivethe globalization of the New Economy in a pluralistic direction.

V. From the Perspective of the NewEconomy, the Barycenter of Globalization is Returning to Asia, with ChinaPlaying an Increasingly Important Role

The global history when seenfrom a perspective linking economic activities of different regions withdifferent volumes, presents a network with its weight moving a few timessignificantly. In most of the time the barycenter of globalization was in Asia,or the Mesopotamia and its surrounding areas, since the very center ofprosperity of either the Alexander Empire, the Roman Empire, the Persian Empireor the Mongolian Empire was namely in the so-called Middle East of today. TheRenaissance and Industrial Revolution, and subsequent Capitalist CommodityEconomy gradually dragged the barycenter to the former wild land of Europe,especially West Europe. But meanwhile, the discovery of the New World and thelater rise of the US rapidly increased the economic weight of North Americathat finally became a new center after WWII.

Though not enough to be thefocus of globalization, China managed to maintain its pivotal position as asignificant end for a long time in history. In recent centuries, the rise ofcapitalism substantially pressed the traditional agricultural China’s share inthe global economy. But with China’s new rise and active participation inglobalization, such situation will surely be reversed, bringing the barycenterof human economic activities back to Asia.

For now China has exhibitedsuch a tendency. China has close cooperation relations with many developingcountries. Out of considerations of market and the ability of innovation,developed countries and especially leading innovative countries are willing tocooperate with China on innovation, and in turn China’s increasing achievementsand experience of development become reference for other developing countries.In this way, China has become an innovation junction between developed anddeveloping countries. The over 60 countries along the “Belt and Road” have atotal population of 4.4 billion, 63% of the world’s total, and a collectiveeconomic volume of 21 trillion US dollars, which is 30% of the world’s total.When plus China, this summation takes up half of the world economy. As theinitiator of the “Belt and Road” and the global innovation junction, China’s contributionto globalization is getting more visible.

Seen from above,the rise of the New Economy hasbrought great change to globalization, with traditional international economicorder being challenged for a new round. The “center-periphery” system with theWest in the middle is at stake, waiting to be replaced by a more equal, moreinclusive and more plural structure of multi-polarization. Having been hauntedby asymmetry for long, globalization is about to embrace a relative balance onthe global scale for the first time, which brings favorable circumstances fordeveloping countries, and notably a special opportunity for China toparticipate in and give impetus to globalization in a more proactive way.

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